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Manoj Rao

Your Average Common Man

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This is not the place for expert updates (or expert anything on this
topic). For accurate, up-to-date information,
please go to WHO's official page:
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports

Show Me The Data

Here it is

It seems whatever methods are adopted that’s nor referred to as “The Wuhan Lockdown” seems show better results since the rest of the world has woken up to the rude shock that everybody was really hoping to brush aside and move on.

What we know are only the confirmed and suspected cases, not the total number of actually infected cases which could be much higher.

Age Old Data from Jan 2020

This section is collection of estimates and reports as of the end of Jan 2020 and as of this post dated Mar-10-2020 most of this data is already showing how wrong our models have been. If anything this should force us to model the future more cautiously (call for paranoia).

Estimated vs Reported Cases in China

This was pessimistic estimation.

Importation Risk HeatMap:

We ignored popular holiday spots as the favorite portals.

Estimated Risk vs Reported Risk

Notice Italy, Spain, and Germany.

Estimated Risks of Airports

Notice how the World might have ignored the road taken for a thousand years by silk traders from China to enter the capital of the ancient world (Rome). Unbeknownst, the virus also took the ‘Silk Road’ to enter Rome??

Exponential

This is a Multi-Variate Problem and rate of its spreading is just looking at the symptoms of the problem, nonetheless, it is useful to understand how fast it is actually spreading. While we have gotten many things wrong it is crucial to get this wrong on the side of caution because we could be playing with fire.

Remember the Big-O Comparison? Here it is 1

Johns Hopkins Dashboard

  1. source wikipedia https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Comparison_computational_complexity.svg 


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